GuilhermeFasolin

Capital-Intensive Agriculture and Development in Agricultural Frontiers

 

Overview

 

Conventional wisdom holds that frontier regions in developing countries are characterized by weak states and dominated by clientelistic elites. Yet substantial variation in local state capacity exists even within the countryside. What explains these differences? This paper advances a new explanation for the development of local state capacity grounded in the rise of capital-intensive agriculture. I argue that agricultural modernization redistributes local power by strengthening commercially oriented farmers and fostering the emergence of urban-commercial groups through broader economic diversification. Because these processes complement state capacity with productive assets, they increase the incentives of these actors to demand and support investments in local state capacity. I evaluate this argument in Brazil, where the adoption of high-yield crop varieties transformed agricultural production unevenly across space. Exploiting variation in the timing of high-yield variety adoption and municipality-level differences in agroecological suitability since the 1970s, I implement an instrumental-variables strategy to estimate the long-run effects of agricultural modernization on local state capacity. The results show that the expansion of capital-intensive agriculture played a pivotal role in strengthening local state capacity by fostering a commercially oriented class of farmers and local economic elites with incentives to support public administration and governance. I complement these quantitative analyses with original fieldwork conducted in Brazil’s agricultural frontier regions, including semi-structured interviews, archival research, and site visits. More broadly, the findings demonstrate how technological change can generate spatially uneven patterns of state capacity and development, even in historically low-capacity frontier regions.

 

 

My Work

Selected Research

My research has been published or is forthcoming in Global Environmental Politics and Journal of Global Security Studies, and other journals.

View all projects

More projects

View all projects

working paper

Climate Change and Inequalities in Political Entry: Evidence from Brazil

The repercussions of climate change, along with the associated events, often exacerbate existing political, economic, and social inequalities. This study delves into the influence of extreme weather events on the decision to pursue a political career in Brazil, a nation that encompasses more than half of the Amazon…

Read more

Brazil capital building Read more

working paper

Oil Windfalls and a Conditional Political Resource Curse: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Brazil 

Do natural resource windfalls affect democratic outcomes? We argue that the effect of such revenues on democratic outcomes is conditioned by the strength of political institutions. Where institutions are weak, natural resource revenues are diverted towards clientelistic practices, which increase incumbent reelection…

Read more

oil windfalls at sea Read more

working paper

Holding Ground: The Resilience of Protected Areas under Institutional Weakening

The conservation value of protected areas is dynamic and can rise sharply when environmental governance weakens and deforestation expands. Protected areas are a cornerstone of global conservation policy, yet those located in remote regions are often view as inefficient because they protected forests under little…

Read more

Wildfires rage over a mountainside Read more

working paper

Costless Defection: How Counter-Rhetoric Neutralizes Climate Shaming

In Western democracies, foreign climate shaming has been shown to impose audience costs on noncompliant leaders. The Paris Agreement depends on peer pressure rather than sanctions to secure compliance. In Western democracies, foreign climate shaming has been shown to impose audience costs on noncompliant leaders,…

Read more

The Eiffel Tower in Paris Read more

Contact Me

Let's Talk

If you are interested in knowing more about any of my projects or think we have similar interests, please feel free to contact me.

Contact Me

Guilherme candid